文章來源：《經濟學人》Jul 3rd 2021 期 Leaders 欄目
The long goodbye to covid-19
與covid-19新冠肺炎永別
After the disease
疫情之後
The pandemic is still far from over, but glimpses of its legacy are emerging
疫情還遠未結束，但其後遺症正在顯現
Jul 3rd 2021WHEN WILL it end? For a year and a half, covid-19 has gripped one country after another. Just when you think the virus is beaten, a new variant comes storming back, more infectious than the last. And yet, as the number of vaccinations passes 3bn, glimpses of post-covid life are emerging. Already, two things are clear: that the last phase of the pandemic will be drawn-out and painful; and that covid-19 will leave behind a different world.
（疫情）什麼時候會結束?一年半以來，新冠肺炎疫情在一個又一個國家蔓延。就在你認為病毒被打敗的時候，一種新的變種如暴風襲來，而且比上一個變種更具傳染性。然而，隨著疫苗接種數量超過30億，後冠狀病毒時代的生活正在顯現。現在，有兩件事是明確的:大流行的最後階段將是漫長而痛苦的; COVID-19將留下一個不同的世界。
This week The Economist publishes a normalcy index, which reflects both these realities. Taking the pre-pandemic average as 100, it tracks such things as flights, traffic and retailing across 50 countries comprising 76% of Earth’s population. Today it stands at 66, almost double the level in April 2020.
normalcy = normality 正常狀態本週，《經濟學人》發布了一份反映上述兩種現實的「正常狀態指數」。以疫情前的平均水平為100，它追蹤了50個國家(佔地球人口76%)的航班、交通和零售等數據。如今，這一數字僅為66，幾乎是2020年4月水平的兩倍。
Yet the ravages of covid-19 are still apparent in many countries. Consider our index’s worst performer, Malaysia, which is suffering a wave of infections six times more deadly than the surge in January and scores just 27. The main reason for this is that vaccination remains incomplete.
然而，疫情在許多國家的肆虐依然明顯。考慮一下在我們的指數中表現最差的馬來西亞，該國正遭受感染浪潮，其致死人數是1月份人數激增時的六倍，它的得分僅為27。造成這種情況的主要原因是疫苗接種仍然不完全。
In sub-Saharan Africa, suffering a lethal outbreak, just 2.4% of the population aged over 12 has had a single dose. Even in America, where vaccines are plentiful, only around 30% of Mississippians and Alabamans are fully protected. Although the world is set to produce around 11bn doses of vaccine this year, it will be months before all those jabs find arms, and longer if rich countries hog doses on the off-chance that they may need them.
I did it on the off chance that … 我做這個想看看…在撒哈拉以南非洲，爆發了致命的疫情，12歲以上的人口中只有2.4%接種過一劑疫苗。即使在疫苗充足的美國，也只有大約30%的密西西比人和阿拉巴馬人得到了充分的保護。儘管全球今年將生產約110億劑疫苗，但在所有這些疫苗找到接種的人前還需要幾個月的時間，如果發達國家為了以防萬一會有需要而多佔疫苗，則需要更長的時間。
The lack of vaccination is aggravated by new variants. Delta, first spotted in India, is two to three times more infectious than the virus that came out of XX. Cases spread so fast that hospitals can rapidly run out of beds and medical staff (and sometimes oxygen), even in places where 30% of people have had jabs. Today’s variants are spreading even among the vaccinated. No mutation has yet put a dent in the vaccines’ ability to prevent almost all severe disease and death. But the next one might.
疫苗接種的缺乏因新變種而加劇。首先在印度發現的Delta病毒，其傳染性是來自XX的病毒的兩到三倍。病例傳播如此之快，以至於醫院的病床和醫護人員(有時甚至是氧氣)很快就會用完，即使在有30%的人注射過疫苗的地方也是如此。今天的變異病毒甚至在接種疫苗的人群中也在蔓延。目前還沒有任何突變能削弱了疫苗預防幾乎所有嚴重疾病和死亡的能力。但下一個突變有可能。
None of this alters the fact that the pandemic will eventually abate, even though the virus itself is likely to survive. For those fortunate enough to have been fully vaccinated and to have access to new treatments, covid-19 is already fast becoming a non- lethal disease. In Britain, where Delta is dominant, the fatality rate if you become infected is now about 0.1%, similar to seasonal flu: a danger, but a manageable one. If a variant required a reformulated vaccine, it would not take long to create.
這些都不能改變疫情最終會減弱的事實，即使病毒本身很可能存活下來。對於那些有幸接種完全了疫苗以及能夠獲得新的治療手段的人來說，covid-19已經迅速成為一種非致命性疾病。在Delta病毒占主導地位的英國，現在被感染的致死率約為0.1%，類似於季節性流感:危險但可控。如果一個變種需要一種重新配製的疫苗，它不會花很長時間來製造出來。
However, as vaccines and treatments become more plentiful in rich countries, so will anger at seeing people in poor ones die for want of supplies. That will cause friction between rich countries and the rest. Travel bans will keep the two worlds apart.
然而，隨著發達國家的疫苗和治療手段越來越豐富，看到貧窮國家的人因為缺乏疫苗而死亡，人們的憤怒也會越來越強烈。這將導致發達國家和其他國家之間的摩擦。旅行禁令將把這兩個世界分開。
Eventually flights will resume, but other changes in behaviour will last. Some will be profound. Take America, where the booming economy surged past its pre-pandemic level back in March, but which still scores only 73 on our index—partly because big cities are quieter, and more people work from home.
航班最終會恢復，但其他行為的變化將會持續。其中一些影響深遠。以美國為例，該國繁榮的經濟在3月份超過了流感爆發前的水平，但在我們的指數中仍只有73分，部分原因是大城市更安靜，而且更多的人在家工作。
So far it looks as if the legacy of covid-19 will follow the pattern set by past pandemics. Nicholas Christakis of Yale University identifies three shifts: the collective threat prompts a growth in state power; the overturning of everyday life leads to a search for meaning; and the closeness of death which brings caution while the disease rages, spurs audacity when it has passed. Each will mark society in its own way.
到目前為止，covid-19的遺存似乎將遵循以往大流行確立的模式。耶魯大學的Nicholas Christakis指出了三個轉變:集體威脅促使國家權力增長; 日常生活的顛覆導致了對意義的探索;當疾病肆虐時，死亡的迫近帶來了謹慎，當疾病過去時，則會激發膽大妄為。每一種轉變都將以自己的方式給社會打上烙印。
When people in rich countr
ies retreated into their houses during lockdowns, the state barricaded itself in with them. During the pandemic governments have been the main channel for information, the setters of rules, a source of cash and, ultimately, providers of vaccines. Very roughly, rich- country governments paid out 90 cents for every dollar of lost output. Slightly to their own amazement, politicians who restricted civil liberties found that most of their citizens applauded.
當發達國家的人們在封鎖期間躲進自己的房子裡時，國家就把自己和他們一道關在了裡面。在大流行期間，政府一直是信息的主要渠道、規則的製定者、現金來源，並最終成為疫苗的提供者。粗略地說，發達國家政府每損失一美元的產出就要支付90美分。令他們自己略感驚訝的是，限制公民自由的政客們發現，他們的大多數公民都為他們鼓掌。
There is a vigorous academic debate about whether lockdowns were 「worth it」. But the big-government legacy of the pandemic is already on display. Just look at the spending plans of the Biden administration. Whatever the problem—inequality, sluggish economic growth, the security of supply chains—a bigger, more activist government seems to be the preferred solution.
big-government (mainly US)大政府 [過多干涉公民生活]關於封鎖是否「值得」，學術界展開了一場激烈的辯論。但是大流行病遺留下來的大政府已經開始顯現。看看拜登政府的支出計劃就知道了。無論問題是什麼，比如不平等，緩慢的經濟增長，供應鏈的安全，一個更大，更積極的政府似乎是首選的解決方案。
There is also evidence of a renewed search for meaning. This is reinforcing the shift towards identity politics on both the right and the left, but it goes deeper than that. Roughly one in five people in Italy and the Netherlands told Pew, a pollster, that the pandemic had made their countries more religious. In Spain and Canada about two in five said family ties had become stronger.
背景：當某一特定群體的成員為了影響政治或社會變革而聯合起來時，其結果通常被稱為「認同政治」。這種現像不僅局限於我們這個時代主要的種族或性別劃分，而且還延伸到性取向、種族、種族等方面，公民身份和其他特定群體感到被邊緣化或受壓迫的情況。也有證據表明，人們正在重新尋找生命的意義。這加強了左翼和右翼向認同政治的轉變，但它比這更深刻。在義大利和荷蘭，大約有五分之一的人告訴民意調查機構Pew，疫情讓他們的國家變得更加宗教化。在西班牙和加拿大，約五分之二的人表示家庭關係變得更加緊密。
Leisure has been affected, too. People say they have had 15% more time on their hands. In Britain young women spent 50% longer with their nose in a book. Literary agents have been swamped with first novels. Some of this will fade: media firms fear an 「attention recession」. But some changes will stick.
to bury one's nose in a book
專心看書
have your nose in a book
埋頭苦讀休閒活動也受到了影響。人們說他們手上的時間多了15%。在英國，年輕女性專心看書的時間比過去長了50%。作家代理人手上的第一部小說已經多到難以招架。有一些休閒活動會逐漸消失:媒體公司擔心出現「注意力減退」。但一些變化將會持續下去。
For example, people may decide they want to escape pre-pandemic drudgery at work, and tight labour markets may help them. In Britain applications to medical school were up by 21% in 2020. In America business creation has been its highest since records began in 2004. One in three Americans who can work from home wants to do so five days a week, according to surveys. Some bosses are ordering people into the office; others are trying to entice them in.
例如，人們可能決定擺脫大流行前的工作苦差事，而緊張的勞動力市場可能有助於他們。在英國，申請醫學院的人數在2020年上升了21%。在美國，商業創造已經達到了自2004年有記錄以來的最高水平。調查顯示，三分之一可以在家工作的美國人希望每週能在家工作五天。一些老闆命令人們進辦公室;其他公司則試圖吸引他們加入。
Those who don』t die roll the dice
那些沒有死亡的人孤注一擲
roll the dice 孤注一擲It is still unclear whether the appetite for risk is about to rebound. In principle, if you survive a life-threatening disease, you may count yourself as one of the lucky ones and the devil may care. In the years after the Spanish flu a century ago, a hunger for excitement burst onto the scene in every sphere, from sexual licence to the arts to the craze for speed. This time the new frontiers could range from space travel to genetic engineering, artificial intelligence and enhanced reality.
licence (immoral behaviour)放縱目前還不清楚風險偏好是否會反彈。原則上，如果你在一種威脅生命的疾病中倖存下來，你可以認為自己是幸運的，而魔鬼可能關照你。在一個世紀前的西班牙流感之後的幾年裡，對刺激的渴望在各個領域爆發，從性放縱到藝術到對速度的狂熱。這一次，新的前沿領域可能涉及從太空旅行到基因工程、人工智慧和增強現實。
Even before the coronavirus came along, the digital revolution, climate change and XX』s rise seemed to be bringing the post-second-world-war, Western-led order to an end. The pandemic will hasten the transformation. ■
甚至在疫情出現之前，數位革命、氣候變化和XX的崛起似乎正在終結二戰後西方主導的秩序。大流行將加速這種轉變。 ■